Markets wary ahead of US rate decision, with focus on AI, Middle East tensions and oil prices

On the 15th, the domestic stock market is expected to be influenced by movements in U.S. stocks, government bond yields, and international oil prices ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting. Movements in Middle East tensions and AI-related stocks are also likely to sway investor sentiment.

On the 14th, the KOSPI index closed at 6,684.37, down 225.54 points (3.26%) from the previous trading day. While individuals made net purchases totaling 297.45 billion won, foreign investors and institutional investors made net sales of 328.75 billion won and 117.39 billion won, respectively. The combined net selling amount by foreign investors and institutional investors reached 446.14 billion won.

Samsung Electronics closed down 4.05% at 249,000 won, and SK Hynix closed down 6.35% at 1.697 million won. Semiconductor-related stocks, including SK Square (-8.17%), Samsung Electronics Preferred (-5.12%), and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (-4.50%), also fell in tandem. On the other hand, financial stocks such as Woori Financial Holdings (+4.99%), KB Financial Holdings (+2.08%), Shinhan Financial Group (+1.51%), and Hana Financial Group (+2.18%) rose.

Market attention is focused on the September FOMC meeting scheduled for the 15th-16th (local time). The U.S. August core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, spreading forecasts for a base rate hike. As of the 14th, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated an 86% probability of a September interest rate hike.

The situation in the Middle East is also a variable. International oil prices surged following news that an oil pipeline connecting the east and west of Saudi Arabia stopped operations due to a drone attack and that a ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz was additionally targeted. Talks between Iran and Gulf states regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, scheduled to be held in Oman, were also postponed. If Middle East tensions worsen overnight and push international oil prices and U.S. government bond yields higher again, it could continue to burden the domestic stock market.

Movements in AI-related stocks also need to be monitored. Kang Jin-hyuk, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "Anthropic and Elon Musk have raised the need for speed control to address AI safety issues, and OpenAI also withdrew its plans for an initial public offering (IPO) this year for the same reason." He added, "U.S. President Donald Trump, who views AI as a strategic asset, refuted this, and NVIDIA is also considering investing $10 billion in Anthropic's IPO, so the debate continues."

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "This week, the domestic stock market is expected to see inevitable short-term volatility ahead of major monetary policy events." He added, "If U.S. 10-year government bond yields stabilize below 5% and foreign investors resume net purchases, the stock market could continue its recovery trend." He further stated, "Given that recent AI demand and memory industry outlooks have not been damaged, there is a possibility that buying pressure centered on semiconductors will support the lower bound of the index even during a correction phase."