Last month's export volume increased by the largest margin in 16 years and 8 months, driven by the semiconductor boom. As both export volume and export prices rose, the income terms of trade index also recorded its highest-ever rate of increase. However, import prices turned upward for the first time in a month due to a sharp surge in international oil prices.
According to the "September 2026 Export and Import Price Index and Trade Indices (Preliminary)" released by the Bank of Korea on the 16th, last month's export volume index rose by 32.1% compared to the same month of the previous year. This is the highest rate of increase since January 2010 (42.0%), marking a period of 16 years and 8 months.
This was influenced by a 46.6% increase in export volume for computers, electronics, and optical equipment, including semiconductors, computer memory devices, and mobile phones. Export volume for machinery and equipment, which includes semiconductor manufacturing machinery, also increased by 11.3%. The export value index rose by 89.2% compared to the same month of the previous year.
Trade terms improved amid strong exports. Last month's net barter terms of trade index rose by 25.4% compared to the same month of the previous year. This was the result of the export price increase rate (43.2%) exceeding the import price increase rate (14.2%). However, the rate of increase narrowed compared to August (27.1%) as the rise in import prices widened due to higher international oil prices.
The income terms of trade index, which reflects both export volume and trade terms, rose by 65.7% compared to the same month of the previous year. This is the highest rate of increase on a year-on-year basis in history. The income terms of trade index is an indicator that shows the quantity of goods that can be imported with total export earnings.
Meanwhile, last month's export prices in won terms fell by 0.8% from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline. Although prices for coal and petroleum products rose by 8.5% due to higher international oil prices, most items, including transportation equipment (-3.2%) and computers, electronics, and optical equipment (-1.8%), declined due to the impact of a lower won/dollar exchange rate.
The monthly average won/dollar exchange rate fell by 3.4% from 1,406.30 won in August to 1,359.00 won in September. Excluding the impact of the exchange rate, export prices based on contract currency actually rose by 2.6%. DRAM export prices also fell by 1.2% in won terms but rose by 2.3% based on contract currency.
In contrast, import prices in won terms rose by 1.7% from the previous month, turning upward for the first time in a month. This was influenced by a sharp 28.1% surge in the monthly average Dubai crude oil price from $88.75 per barrel to $113.71. As crude oil import prices rose by 21.6%, raw material import prices also increased by 9.6%.
Lee Heung-hoo, Head of the Price Statistics Team at the Bank of Korea, explained, "Rising international oil prices affect both export and import prices, but import prices include mining products with a large weight, whereas export prices do not include crude oil."
Regarding October import prices, he forecasted, "As the exchange rate and international oil prices have fallen compared to September through mid-October, they are expected to act as downward factors for import prices."
However, he added, "Uncertainty regarding international oil prices remains high in relation to the development of the Middle East war," and stated, "Import prices are expected to continue a high double-digit rate of increase compared to the same month of the previous year."
in ECONOMY
