KOSPI entered a period of consolidation ahead of the scheduled Nvidia earnings report and the release of the U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on the 26th (local time). In the securities industry, it is expected that investors will confirm risks through these two announcements before proceeding with full-scale buying and selling.
As of 11:29 a.m. today, KOSPI was trading at 6,816.82, up 74.08 points (1.10%) from the previous trading session. Today, KOSPI has shown signs of fluctuating within and around the flat range.
Experts in the financial investment industry diagnose that investor sentiment has intensified ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and the U.S. July PCE release on the 26th (local time). There is also an opinion that buying pressure from other corporations has strengthened the downward support for the index. In fact, since SK Hynix announced its share buyback program on the 20th until yesterday, net purchases in the trillions of won have continued for four consecutive trading days.
Lee Sang-yeon, a researcher at Shinhan Securities, said, "Given that major events affecting the stock market are scheduled, it is interpreted that investors are choosing to watch rather than over-betting on direction." He added, "Among investment entities, other corporations are mechanically buying Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares, which is preventing the downside."
In the securities industry, key points to look for in Nvidia's earnings announcement include high gross profit margins and comments by CEO Jensen Huang during the conference call. The analysis suggests that at this early stage of transitioning from the flagship AI chip 'Blackwell' to the next-generation chip 'Vera Rubin', the quality of growth must be assessed through gross margin indicators.
Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "Typically, in the initial phase of new products, margins are diluted due to cost burdens before yield stabilization." He added, "Even if sales increase, if margins are eroded, questions may be raised about the profitability of AI investments themselves."
He continued, "Whether there will be any mention of supply constraints regarding HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and advanced packaging is also a key point to watch. As supply bottlenecks are increasingly identified, it will be favorable for domestic memory companies' price negotiation power."
The key point to focus on in the U.S. July PCE is the stabilization of inflation. If it comes in weaker than market expectations, it could trigger a rise in interest rates and act as bad news for the stock market.
Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, noted, "What will be important going forward is the pace of interest rate hikes. If inflation relief is secured in July PCE following July CPI, the possibility of a sharp rise in long-term interest rates will be limited." He predicted, "In this case, stock price sensitivity to macroeconomic uncertainty will decrease, creating an environment favorable for growth stocks centered on AI and semiconductors."
Despite the continuing uncertainty in macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and oil prices, experts agree that investors should not leave the stock market. This is supported by the fact that semiconductor profitability remains robust and that rotation trading is appearing in sectors such as cosmetics and financial stocks even when 'Samsung-Hynix' take a break.
One researcher said, "Strategies that excessively reduce the weight of semiconductors amid controversies over weakening leadership, or increase cash holdings by selling after stock price rebounds, should be considered lower priority." He added, "While maintaining the weight of existing leading stocks at the level of their market capitalization share, a strategy of selectively buying other major sectors such as retail, securities, power equipment, and biotech during further corrections is an alternative at this point."
Researcher Na also explained, "I believe KOSPI will bottom out and rebound slightly. At that time, while the rise will be led by semiconductors, from a perspective seeking return alpha, investors can pay close attention to stocks related to data centers such as SK Telecom and NHN, as well as the secondary battery sector."
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