As the KOSPI index plunged by more than 13% over five trading days, falling below the 6,000 mark, forecasts suggest that a sustained rebound will take time. On the 13th, the KOSPI index closed at 6,035.35, down 348.89 points (5.46%) from the previous day. The KOSPI index has declined for five consecutive trading days since the 6th. During this period alone, it dropped by 968.39 points.
Kim Min-gyu, a researcher at KB Securities, stated, "The causes are deteriorating investor sentiment in the semiconductor sector, supply-demand gaps in the stock market, and the persistence of an unstable macro environment," adding, "Net selling by foreign investors continues, centered on the semiconductor sector."
Following news that Chinese memory semiconductor company Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) will release server semiconductors within the year, the share prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slid by 7.29% and 10.09%, respectively, on the day.
The controversy over OpenAI's ARR (annual recurring revenue) was revealed to be due to differences in aggregation methods, yet it continues to act as a negative factor. The external environment is also unfavorable. As international oil prices rise, caution is growing ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September on the 14th (local time), weakening foreign investors' risk appetite.
Supply-demand gaps are also emerging as share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix enter their final stages. On the day, foreign investors made net sales of 4.533 trillion won in the KOSPI market. Retail investors and institutional investors made net purchases of 2.2361 trillion won and 1.6884 trillion won, respectively.
Many forecasts indicate that a sustained rebound will take time. This is because it is difficult to quickly resolve the negative external environment and doubts regarding AI (artificial intelligence) and semiconductors.
Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, "Unlike before, a rebound may require time," adding, "For a rebound to occur, changes in foreign supply-demand, a decline in US long-term interest rates, and upward revisions to next year's semiconductor profit estimates must take place."
Experts predict that investors should wait until the end of this month, when earnings and guidance releases from semiconductor companies and Big Tech (large IT firms) are expected to intensify. Following this week's US CPI release, earnings from ASML, TSMC, and others will be announced. The increasing likelihood that the base rate will be held steady at the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is also a positive factor. The US midterm elections to be held next month could also influence the direction of the stock market.
Advice has also emerged against hastily engaging in panic selling. Lee Sang-yeon, a researcher at Shin Young Securities, stated, "Rather than reacting to daily fluctuations, one should observe the situation until the end of this month," adding, "Given the possibility that the base rate may be held steady at the October FOMC meeting, I believe a wait-and-see strategy is more appropriate than formulating strategies based on current market prices."
There are also recommendations to engage in split buying if the KOSPI index falls into the 5,000 range. Jeong Da-eun, a researcher at LS Securities, stated, "We judge that an approach from the perspective of split buying is effective in the KOSPI 5,000 range," adding, "A split-buying approach is valid, considering factors such as gradual interest rate stabilization, US midterm elections that can alleviate fiscal concerns, and a KOSPI index level close to the all-time low (closing price basis: 5,593.56)."
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