Micron forecast that the supply shortage in the global memory semiconductor (hereinafter referred to as memory) market will continue through 2028. This is because the expansion of memory production capacity is failing to keep pace with demand. In particular, a significant increase in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices and supply volumes next year is expected to benefit Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
According to electronics industry sources on the 1st, Sanjay Mehrotra, Chief Executive Officer of Micron, stated during the company's earnings announcement for the fourth quarter (June–August) of fiscal year 2026 that "memory and storage supply and demand will be much tighter next year and in 2028 than this year." He added that "HBM shipments are expected to grow at a faster pace than conventional DRAM through 2028."
Micron's revenue and operating profit for the previous quarter were $54.229 billion (approximately 73.82 trillion won) and $43.751 billion (approximately 59.5538 trillion won), respectively, marking all-time high results. These figures exceeded market expectations, with revenue up 379.3% and operating profit up 1097.3% compared to the same period last year. The operating profit margin reached 80.7%.
Behind the record-high results are exploding data center demand driven by the expansion of AI (artificial intelligence) infrastructure and rising memory ASPs (average selling prices). Revenue for Micron's core data center business division increased by 56% from the previous quarter to $18 billion. During the same period, ASPs for DRAM and NAND rose by the high teens and 30%, respectively.
A point of market attention is that the memory shortage will persist even after new fab (factory) construction is sequentially completed starting in the second half of 2027. Micron estimated that volumes under long-term supply contracts account for more than 35% of projected revenue through 2030. There are also cases where contracts have been extended through 2031.
Additionally, HBM price increases and production volume growth are anticipated. Micron explained that it has completed contracts for most of its HBM supply volumes for next year and raised prices by a "significant margin." Market research firm TrendForce recently predicted that HBM selling prices will rise by 121% next year compared to this year.
These trends in the memory industry are positive for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as well. Domestic securities firms forecast that operating profits for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the third quarter of this year will average 108.68 trillion won and 77.22 trillion won, respectively. This would be an all-time high.
A strength is that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix possess HBM production capabilities ahead of Micron. Global investment bank Citi forecast that SK Hynix's HBM supply volume this year will reach 17 billion Gb (gigabits), more than double that of Micron.
In particular, Samsung Electronics is expected to take the top spot in the industry with an HBM supply volume reaching 25 billion Gb next year. This level is 4 billion Gb and 12 billion Gb higher than SK Hynix and Micron, respectively. Samsung Electronics has also strengthened its presence in the market by delivering HBM4E (7th-generation HBM) samples to customers for the first time in the industry last May.
Kim Rok-ho, a research analyst at Hana Securities, stated, "It is necessary to pay attention to the increase in Samsung Electronics' HBM revenue next year." He added, "While price increases for conventional DRAM are limited due to long-term supply contracts and other factors, a significant increase in HBM revenue is expected to contribute to earnings."
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