It is projected that maximum power demand in 2040 will reach 165GW (gigawatts), a 70% increase from current levels. This figure represents an upward revision of approximately 20% compared to the forecast analyzed four months ago. The surge is attributed to new power demands from the Honam semiconductor industrial complex and AI data centers, among others.
The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment and the General Committee for Establishing the 12th Basic Electricity Plan (hereinafter referred to as the "Electricity Plan") revealed the projected power demand for 2040—the plan's target year—at the fifth public policy seminar for establishing the 12th Electricity Plan held on the 20th.
During a seminar last April, power demand in 2040 was forecast at 131.8GW under the baseline scenario and 138.2GW under the upward revision scenario. However, following the announcement of the three mega-projects, new power demands required for these projects were newly incorporated into the forecasts.
Through reforecasting, the General Committee adjusted the projected maximum power demand in 2040 to 158.4GW (baseline)–165GW (upward revision), an increase of approximately 20% compared to previous projections. Compared to last year's maximum power demand of 95.9GW, it is expected to rise by 70%.
Maximum power demand is calculated by summing model-based demand reflecting economic growth rates, demand from advanced industries such as semiconductors, demand from AI data centers, and electrification-related demand. The sectors with significantly expanded forecasts are advanced industries and AI data centers. According to the three mega-projects, four new semiconductor factories will be built in the Honam region, and AI data centers with a total capacity of 18.4GW will be constructed nationwide.
In this reforecast, demand from advanced industries is expected to increase by 24.3–24.6GW (net incremental basis), revised upward from the previous forecast of 3.7–4GW due to the inclusion of the Yongin semiconductor cluster and Honam semiconductor industrial complex demands. Demand from AI data centers is also projected to expand to 11.9GW, up from the previous estimate of 4GW. The forecast for electrification-related demand remains similar to the prior projection at 17–17.7GW.
With future power demand expected to surge significantly due to the three mega-projects and other factors, discussions on constructing new nuclear plants are also gaining momentum. If the 2040 power demand forecast is fully reflected in the 12th Electricity Plan, a substantial expansion of generation facilities will be necessary. Under the 11th Electricity Plan, maximum power demand for 2038 was projected at 129.3GW; applying a reserve margin of 22%, the target capacity was calculated at 157.8GW. Planned power facilities—including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy—totaling 147.5GW are scheduled to be completed by 2038. Subtracting this from the target capacity reveals a shortfall of 10.3GW in power facilities.
Using the same calculation method, the target capacity for 2040 reaches 201.3GW (applying a 22% reserve margin). However, since only 147.5GW of facilities are planned by 2038, an additional 50GW or more in power facilities will be required to meet the target capacity. This is equivalent to approximately 35 large nuclear reactors (based on 1.4GW per unit).
Although the government plans to expand renewable energy generation capacity to 100GW by 2030, meeting power demand solely through renewables is deemed difficult. During the fourth seminar held that day, Park Woo-young, an energy transition researcher at the Korea Energy Economics Institute, pointed out: "Even if the 100GW renewable energy target is achieved without delay, total generation would be approximately 150TWh (terawatt-hours), which cannot meet the additional demand from mega-projects (approximately 260TWh)." The government plans to decide on the construction of new nuclear plants through further seminars and public deliberation.
in ECONOMY
