With a continuing boom in semiconductor exports, forecasts indicate that September export value is highly likely to surpass $100 billion for the second time this year, following June. Analysis suggests that despite a reduction in working days due to the Chuseok holiday, September could still achieve record-high export performance.
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the Korea Customs Service on the 28th, exports from the 1st to the 20th of this month reached $71.4 billion, a 78.3% increase year-on-year, marking the highest figure for the same period in history. This is 15.7% higher than the performance during the same period in June ($61.7 billion), when exports surpassed $100 billion for the first time ever.
Semiconductors once again led September's exports. During this period, semiconductor exports reached $34.1 billion, a 259.4% increase year-on-year. This was influenced by the continued rise in memory semiconductor prices as global big-tech companies such as Google and Amazon gradually expanded their investments in AI (artificial intelligence) data centers.
The fixed price for memory chips in August stood at $46.5 per 16Gb DDR5 (Double Data Rate 5), a 3.3% increase from the previous month and a 32.9% rise compared to April this year. If this trend continues, semiconductor exports this month are highly likely to surpass $40 billion for four consecutive months since June.
Thanks to the semiconductor boom, exports of computer peripherals in mid-September increased by 187.6% year-on-year. In non-semiconductor sectors, ships and petroleum products also rose by 63% and 47.8%, respectively, contributing to the overall increase in export performance.
While export performance typically increases significantly in the latter half of a month (21st to end of month) compared to the first half, September this year faces the variable of the Chuseok holiday. Due to the holiday effect, the number of working days this month is estimated at 21.5 days, down by 2.5 days from September last year (24 days).
Assuming the average daily export value for this month ($4.61 billion) continues until the end of the month, total monthly exports are estimated at approximately $99.1 billion. However, considering the strong semiconductor market and the export performance in the first half of the month, analysis suggests that surpassing $100 billion for the month is highly likely despite the reduction in working days due to the Chuseok holiday.
Jung Yeo-kyung, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "Autumn is the peak season for semiconductor exports," and added, "Thanks to the push effect considering the Chuseok holiday, the average daily export growth rate of semiconductors in September will significantly exceed 200%, setting a new annual record."
If September's export value surpasses $100 billion, it will be the second time in history, following June this year ($102 billion), when exports exceeded $100 billion for the first time ever. South Korea becomes the fourth country after Germany, China, and the United States to have monthly exports exceeding $100 billion.
While July and August of this year recorded $99.2 billion and $98.3 billion respectively, showing weakness compared to June, September is now expected to potentially surpass $100 billion again and achieve record-high performance.
Kim Ho-jeong, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, stated, "September exports are estimated at a median of approximately $108 billion based on model estimates," and forecasted that "despite a 2.5-day reduction in working days due to the Chuseok holiday, semiconductor exports will exceed $40 billion for four consecutive months, and non-semiconductor sectors such as automotive exports will normalize."
If the export boom continues into the fourth quarter of this year, total annual exports are expected to surpass the record high of 1 trillion won. Depending on semiconductor performance, there is also a possibility of exceeding 1.1 trillion won. Meritz Securities reported earlier this month that it forecasts this year's exports will reach $1.1136 trillion, a 57% increase from the previous year.
in ECONOMY
