As the second-quarter earnings season concludes on a positive note, the stock market is also showing stable trends. Particularly notable is the strong profit growth in the semiconductor sector, alongside an increasing number of sectors—such as refining, materials, industrial goods, healthcare, and finance—reporting solid results. However, analysts warn that expectations for second-half performance may be tempered given the slowing pace of memory price increases and potential impacts from one-time costs such as exchange rate fluctuations and year-end bonuses.
According to data from the financial investment industry on the 18th, the KOSPI200 sector’s Q2 operating profit rose 286% year-on-year to 245.3 trillion won, marking a record high. Net income attributable to controlling shareholders increased by 430% to 237 trillion won. Notably, 57.4% of companies—about six out of ten—reported earnings that exceeded expectations, known as "earnings surprises." This surprise rate is the highest since Q1 2021 (60.7%).
While the growth in operating profit is largely driven by strong performance from semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, analysts note that even excluding the semiconductor sector, results remain robust. Yeom Dong-chan, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, stated, "The high profit growth rate in Q2 was significantly boosted by large semiconductor companies' strong results. However, even after excluding Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the growth rate still reached 63.4%, indicating that other companies are also improving their performance."
Strong earnings have also contributed to stock price recoveries. Refining stocks such as SK Innovation and S-Oil, which reported solid Q2 results amid rising refining margins, saw share prices rise by around 20% following their earnings announcements. Similarly, insurance companies that delivered simultaneous earnings surprises—partly due to base effects—are continuing their upward price trends. Among KOSPI 200 firms, SK Chemicals, Samsung SDI, and Kumho Petrochemical, which had high surprise rates, experienced sharp gains of approximately 6% to 14% on the day of their earnings releases.
Researcher Yeom added, "The most significant feature of this quarter's earnings season is that profit improvements are spreading from semiconductors to other sectors." He advised investors to focus on companies that not only delivered Q2 surprises but also raised their full-year profit forecasts. Following their earnings surprises, annual profit consensus estimates were revised upward for Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, APR, Daedeok Electronics, Simtek, Pan Ocean, Kumho Petrochemical, Cosmax, Goyoung, Lotte Fine Chemicals, Cosmeca Korea, and Haesung DS.
However, there are concerns that performance expectations for the second half may decline. Kim Seong-no, a researcher at BNK Investment & Securities, noted, "A decline in the won-dollar exchange rate and a slowdown in memory semiconductor export prices are expected to stall revenue growth." He further warned, "As year-end bonuses typically increase in Q4, demands for higher bonuses could spread, potentially leading to downward revisions in forecasts."
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