Although the AI bubble theory is gaining traction, the supply shortage of memory semiconductors for consumer products such as PCs is deepening. As the supply shortage of PC memory persists, even Intel, a major CPU manufacturer, has lowered its fourth-quarter revenue forecast.
With memory semiconductor manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix hinting at further expansion of production for AI server products, the supply-demand crisis in the PC industry is expected to continue into next year.
According to market research firm DRAMeXchange on the 2nd, the average fixed transaction price for general-purpose PC-grade DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) last month hit an all-time high of $27.50. This represents a surge of approximately four times compared to October last year ($7).
The focus of major memory manufacturers on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and server DRAM production has fueled the rise in prices for general-purpose PC-grade DRAM. HBM consumes more wafers than standard DRAM, meaning that as its production share increases, the capacity available for consumer memory supply decreases structurally.
The rise in memory prices has translated into a "cost shock" for the PC industry. Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that global PC shipments will decline by 27% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year.
This represents an expansion of the decline rate by 4 percentage points compared to the third-quarter decrease (23%). Counterpoint Research stated, "Rising prices for components, including memory, have driven up PC prices as well, acting as a factor constraining demand."
Intel, a key player in the global PC industry, also failed to escape the impact of market contraction. Intel's third-quarter PC business revenue was $8.1 billion (approximately 10.8653 trillion won), down 9% from the previous quarter.
Intel forecast that its total fourth-quarter revenue would fall short of the third quarter ($16.5 billion), ranging between $15 billion and $16 billion. Amid sluggish PC business performance and concerns over funding among global big tech companies, Intel's stock price plunged by nearly 30% in a single day on the 30th (local time).
Rising component prices are also affecting the production strategies of PC manufacturers. Market research firm TrendForce estimated that, as of the third quarter of this year, components such as CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs (Solid State Drives) account for approximately 68% of PC manufacturing costs.
As cost burdens increase, major PC manufacturers such as HP, Lenovo, and Dell are reportedly considering cost-cutting measures through the restructuring of production bases. Lip-Bu Tan, Intel's CEO (Chief Executive Officer), expressed concern in an interview with Bloomberg on the 31st last month, stating, "One of the biggest challenges is memory," and adding, "Next year will be a very serious issue for all of us."
The supply-demand imbalance in memory for the PC industry appears set to continue into next year. TrendForce expects that Korean DRAM manufacturers' production of PC-grade DRAM next year will decrease by more than 20% compared to this year. Considering reduced purchases by PC manufacturers and the expansion of long-term memory supply contracts, analysts predict that the decline in supply could exceed 40%.
The trend among domestic memory companies to expand high-value-added server products is also intensifying. Kim Jae-jun, vice president of Samsung Electronics' Memory Division, said, "We will raise the sales share of HBM, server DRAM, and SSDs by one notch in the fourth quarter to meet AI market demand." SK hynix also plans to expand sales centered on high-value-added server products.
An industry official said, "Despite concerns over AI investment, the overall supply shortage in the memory market is deepening," adding, "With the scarcity of core components such as PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) and CCLs (Copper Clad Laminate) compounding the issue, PC manufacturers' burden in procuring components will persist for the time being."
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