Market caution is rising ahead of NVIDIA's earnings announcement and the Jackson Hole meeting. Semiconductor stocks have fallen both domestically and internationally, and the KOSPI has slipped for two consecutive days. Experts in the financial investment industry predict that the KOSPI is likely to remain trapped within a trading range for some time. However, they advised against rash selling given that fundamentals remain solid.
As of 11:23 a.m. on the 25th, the KOSPI was down 124.57 points (1.86%) from the previous day at 6,572.39. After falling 3.12% the previous day, the KOSPI began trading lower again today.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are currently down 2.04% and 4.37%, respectively.
Lee Sang-yeon, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "There is more anxiety than expectation ahead of NVIDIA's earnings release and the Jackson Hole meeting," adding, "With the second-quarter earnings season concluded, there is no market momentum, so stock prices are falling."
Not only the domestic market but also the U.S. market fell amid this anxiety. On the 24th (local time), NVIDIA dropped 2.91% on the U.S. market, marking seven consecutive days of decline—the longest streak since September 2022. Micron Technology slipped 5.83%, and Broadcom fell 2.63%. The S&P 500 index closed down 21.51 points (0.28%) at 7,652.86, while the NASDAQ index, centered on technology stocks, ended the session down 200.26 points (0.76%) at 25,980.19.
Experts predict that NVIDIA's second-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for the 26th (local time) will be a critical turning point for semiconductor investment sentiment.
Kim Jae-seung, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, explained, "NVIDIA has recorded earnings surprises continuously since 2023, but in each of the last four quarters, 'sell-on-peak'—where stock prices fall after earnings announcements—has occurred." He added, "Concerns about sell-offs following NVIDIA's earnings announcement are raising caution not only among U.S. technology stocks but also within Korea's semiconductor sector."
Experts believe that concerns over AI profitability may intensify or ease depending less on whether NVIDIA achieves earnings growth and more on its gross profit margin and comments made by CEO Jensen Huang during the conference call. Currently, component prices such as HBM (high-bandwidth memory) and DRAM are rising rapidly, and NVIDIA's next-generation AI platform, "Vera Rubin," has entered initial production at Yangsan. If NVIDIA's gross profit margin declines, it would mean that due to steep cost increases, profits shrink the more products NVIDIA sells. In such a case, investment sentiment in semiconductors including AI could deteriorate.
With rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields recently shaking the stock market, the Jackson Hole meeting scheduled for the 27th–29th (local time) is also an event to watch closely. In particular, Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve/Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a keynote address on the 28th.
Hwang Soo-wook, a researcher at Meritz Securities, stated, "Global stock markets are struggling to absorb concerns over interest rates," and added, "Until U.S. long-term yields stabilize, it will be difficult to expect valuation expansion for global risk assets."
Consequently, forecasts suggest the KOSPI is likely to experience volatility in the 6,000–7,000 range for some time. However, since corporate fundamentals remain intact and warmth is spreading to non-semiconductor sectors such as cosmetics and banking recently, the prevailing advice is to hold off on selling stocks and instead monitor the situation.
This researcher said, "The AI theme has not disappeared, so there is no need to liquidate positions now," adding, "While the index falls, safe-haven sectors are rising; therefore, the market should be viewed from a rotation perspective."
Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, also noted, "During last month's sharp decline, most sectors fell together, but recently, there has been an expansion of warmth in sector returns compared to before and a reduction in concentration among a few sectors, indicating improvements in the market's constitution and internal strength." She concluded, "Moving forward, we should place greater weight on the continuity of any recovery."
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