Foldable panels surge despite OLED market contraction… K-panels' share expands

The OLED (organic light-emitting diode) panel market for smartphones is contracting due to rising memory semiconductor prices, but the foldable OLED market is expected to maintain its growth trajectory. As major smartphone manufacturers such as Apple expand their release of foldable products, demand for related panels is also expected to increase. This appears to open new growth opportunities for domestic display companies with technological competitiveness.

According to market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 12th, global foldable and rollable panel shipments are projected to increase by 23% year-on-year this year. This contrasts with the forecast that global smartphone OLED panel shipments will decline by 3% over the same period. Counterpoint Research predicted, "As more brands launch new form factors and expand their premium portfolios, foldable OLEDs will become a key growth driver."

Major smartphone manufacturers have successively unveiled new foldable products this year. Following Samsung Electronics' launch of the 'Galaxy Z8 series' in July last month, Apple also joined the competition by unveiling its first foldable phone, the 'iPhone Duo,' in September last month. Huawei and Xiaomi also expanded their product lines by introducing models such as the 'Pura X Max' and '18 Fold,' respectively. Motorola is also scheduled to unveil a new foldable product in January next year.

The expansion of the foldable phone market is favorable for domestic display companies with technological competitiveness. According to market research firm Omdia, Samsung Display's foldable OLED panel revenue this year is estimated at approximately $3.49 billion, an increase of 172.7% from last year (approximately $1.28 billion). Its market share by revenue is projected to rise by 31.3 percentage points, from 42.8% last year to 74.1% this year. The company is evaluated as having secured the benefits of market expansion by effectively exclusively supplying foldable OLED panels to Samsung Electronics and Apple.

Conversely, Chinese display companies are expected to see declining revenues despite the growth in the foldable OLED market. BOE's foldable OLED panel revenue this year is analyzed to be approximately $930 million, a 16.9% decrease from last year (approximately $1.11949 billion). Visionox and CSOT are also projected to see revenues decline by approximately 42% and approximately 60%, respectively, compared to the previous year. An industry official noted, "It appears that Chinese display companies have largely caught up in foldable-related technologies such as hinges, wrinkles, and durability," while adding, "However, there are still deficiencies in detailed design implementation technologies such as minimizing bezels."

LG Display is also preparing for market expansion by securing foldable OLED technology, including the unveiling of an OLED panel for a 17-inch foldable laptop in 2023. Although it does not yet mass-produce foldable OLED panels for smartphones, it is evaluated that there is room to seek business expansion as the market grows in the future. Executive Vice President Baek Seung-ryong, Head of Small Display Planning and Management at LG Display, stated during a conference call for the third-quarter earnings release this year, "Foldable smartphones provide differentiated value to consumers through new form factors," adding, "Demand is also expected to increase going forward, given the expanding demand for large screens optimized for AI (artificial intelligence)."

The share of foldable OLEDs within the market is also expected to expand. The proportion of foldable products in total smartphone OLED panel shipments is projected to rise from 5.8% last year to 11% by 2031. Another industry official said, "While the foldable phone market does not yet account for a large share of the overall smartphone market, its growth potential is expanding as major manufacturers continue to launch new products," adding, "Demand for related panels will also increase in the medium to long term."