As Samsung Electronics announced its third-quarter preliminary earnings that exceeded market expectations, analysts pointed out that attention should be focused not on the earnings themselves, but on changes in stock price, foreign supply and demand, and next year's profit estimates following the announcement.
Samsung Electronics announced its preliminary results on the 8th, reporting a third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. This figure exceeds market expectations of 106.6401 trillion won. Despite the decline in the won/dollar exchange rate, Samsung Electronics achieved an earnings surprise.
As of 8:01 a.m. on the same day, Samsung Electronics was trading at 212,000 won on NextTrade's pre-market, up 4,000 won (1.92%) from the previous day.
Han Ji-young, Research Analyst at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "The stock price reaction following this earnings announcement is the primary point of interest," adding, "Despite Micron's strong recent results, the upward momentum in its stock price has been limited. Furthermore, even as positive news for domestic semiconductor stocks has emerged one after another, such as last month's surprise in semiconductor exports, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have shown a lack of strong stock price elasticity."
She continued, "The shift in focus from this year's remaining period earnings to the sustainability of profits from next year onward is largely due to rising market expectations for semiconductor stocks, rather than concerns over deteriorating semiconductor industry conditions," explaining, "Ultimately, the market's concern lies not in immediate changes in memory demand, but in whether tight supply and high margins can be maintained from next year, when capacity expansion by the top three memory makers will begin in earnest, through 2028 and beyond."
It was also analyzed that recent net selling of semiconductor stocks by foreign investors on the KOSPI reflects these concerns to some extent. Since the beginning of this month, foreigners have made net sales of over 4 trillion won on the KOSPI.
The analyst stated, "For Samsung Electronics' third-quarter preliminary earnings, it seems more important to closely monitor stock price movements and changes in foreign supply and demand immediately after the announcement, as well as shifts in next year's profit estimates, rather than whether they exceeded consensus estimates." She added, "Since detailed figures are not disclosed, market interpretations regarding exchange rate impacts and performance by business segment may temporarily conflict. It is also necessary to keep in mind that short-term supply and demand could be affected by the stock market holiday on the 9th, ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) rebalancing, and option expiration day." She further added, "The overall stock price trend of the domestic stock market and substantive changes in foreign supply and demand will appear starting next week."
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